More natural gas and small nukes, higher electric bills in revised Duke Energy plan

Duke Energy's Shearon Harris nuclear plant in Wake County (Photo: Lisa Sorg via Southwings flight)

Duke Energy proposes to build a new natural gas plant in Person County and three small modular nuclear reactors in Stokes County over the next 10 years, projects the company says are necessary to meet “unprecedented” energy demand while reducing carbon emissions as legally required.

In filings with the state Utilities Commission yesterday, Duke estimated that construction costs for these projects would hike average monthly energy bills for Duke Energy Progress residential customers by 39% over previous estimates in 2033; Duke Energy Carolinas customers would pay 73% more per month. 

Figures are based on households using 1,000 kilowatt hours of electricity per month. For example, a Duke Energy Carolinas customer that was forecast to pay $30 per month in 2033, would be charged $52 under the amended plan.

Duke proposes to add more solar and wind power, but it also would delay the retirement of two coal-fired power plants in Gaston County by nine months, to December of this year, according to the documents.

The recent filings update the 2023 Resource Plan the company issued last spring. North Carolina’s “substantial economic development successes” Duke Energy said, prompted it to reanalyze its forecasts for supply and demand. “Interest over the past year from new large-load customers exploring siting new facilities” in North Carolina “has occurred at a scale and pace that is well beyond the Companies’ historical experience,” utility officials wrote. 

This includes major manufacturers, such as Boom Supersonic in Greensboro, electric vehicle charging stations, data centers and “block chain operations” – cryptocurrency miners – the latter of which consumes enormous amounts of energy with little economic benefit.

By 2030 energy demand is projected to be 22% above what the company estimated just two years ago; within 10 years it could be 25% greater than previously forecast.

The Utilities Commission can approve, amend or reject the proposal, which will be subject to several hearings that will be open to the public. The commission could rule in late 2024.

A selection of a final plan is up to state regulators, who must also separately decide on the appropriateness of any costs in a future rate case, according to a Duke spokesperson.

In addition to the Person County natural gas site, the utility could construct as many as four more natural gas facilities that could ultimately run on hydrogen power, but that’s unlikely to be part of Duke’s energy mix until mid-century.

Clean energy advocates quickly criticized Duke Energy, noting that several natural gas plants failed during Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, resulting in widespread blackouts over the Christmas weekend. “Renewables kept supporting our grid,” Michelle Carter, Clean Energy Campaigns Director of the N.C. League of Conservation Voters, said in a prepared statement. “However, Duke’s updated plan calls for multiple new gas plants across the Carolinas. While their new addition of offshore wind resources is commendable, Duke Energy’s buildout of renewable energy is insufficient for the Carolinas’ energy future.”

North Carolina law requires the utilities commission “to take all reasonable steps” to ensure Duke Energy, the state’s dominant investor-owned utility, reduces its carbon dioxide emissions by 70% by 2030; Duke must reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Reaching the interim target on time will require the addition of both advanced nuclear reactors and offshore wind, the utility wrote. If economic development continues at the current pace, Duke will not meet that 70% benchmark until the late 2030s, according to the utility.

Will Scott, the Environmental Defense Fund’s Southeast Climate and Clean Energy Director, said the plan “is tripling down on the coal-to-gas transition, saddling customers with risky investments in new polluting power plants and failing to deliver the clean energy future called for in state law. We’re hopeful the NC Utilities Commission will require Duke to pursue a path that controls costs for customers while meeting North Carolina’s 2030 carbon emission reduction goal on time.”

Pending utilities commission approval, here is a summary of Duke’s proposed energy mix:

Coal

The Allen plants in Gaston County were scheduled to be retired in March; the new plan postpones their mothballing until December. By 2035, coal will be eliminated from the utility’s energy mix.

Natural gas

Natural gas, while emitting less carbon dioxide, is the primary source of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, entering the atmosphere. Although carbon dioxide persists in the atmosphere longer than methane, the latter does far more damage in its short lifetime.

The new plan now includes the operation of the controversial and much-delayed Mountain Valley Pipeline, which runs from West Virginia through Virginia to the North Carolina line. 

The proposed MVP Southgate extension from Virginia to Rockingham County has not been finalized; Equitrans, the pipeline operator, recently announced major changes to the Southgate line, shortening the route and containing it within Rockingham County instead of proceeding through Alamance County. Equitrans has not yet issued a map of the new route, nor has it received any state environmental permits.

With the availability of the MVP gas, Duke plans to build two new natural gas plants in North Carolina, including Person County. That will add another 2,720 megawatts of natural gas to the electric grid, a third more than previously projected. The additional natural gas plant in Person County coincides with plans for a controversial liquified natural gas storage facility in the southeastern part of the county.

Nuclear power

In addition to Duke’s three large nuclear plants — Shearon Harris in Wake County, McGuire in Mecklenburg County, and Brunswick in Brunswick County — the utility is proposing to build new units at its Belews Creek site in Stokes County.

SMRs, as these smaller units are known, are a quarter of the size of a conventional nuclear plant and have more compact, simplified designs. However, SMRs are a nascent technology and have not been commercially deployed. NuScale, which had planned to build several commercially viable SMRs in Utah, canceled the project after costs topped $9 billion. And while SMR supporters have touted the lower amounts of nuclear waste produced by these units, recent research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science shows the volume of spent fuel is actually higher than advocates have stated.

Nonetheless, Duke plans to build seven SMRs in the state by mid-century.

Solar

The new plan adds more solar energy than under the previous plan, reaching 17,500 megawatts within 15 years. Additional battery storage paired with solar could boost the resource’s availability at night.

Wind

Duke still plans to build an offshore wind farm off the Brunswick County coast, even after selling the company’s commercial renewable energy arm last year. However, the first pulse of energy won’t arrive until 2033 or 2034, about two years later than originally planned. Duke had not factored on-shore wind into the mix, but now plans to build a farm — somewhere — to be in service by 2033. The two wind power sources are projected to make up a total of 2% of the energy mix in 2033, increasing to 12% by mid-century.

This story has been corrected to say the amount of solar energy would reach 17,500 megawatts, not 17.5 megawatts, within 15 years.

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